AMC Friday 010607

DJIA 13,668.11 +40.47 NASDAQ 2,613.92 +9.40 S&P500 1,536.34 +5.72

Briefing.com After Hours Report 010607

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 01-Jun-07 18:31 ET

The stock market rally not only continued, the S&P 500 index was up each of the four days of this holiday-shortened week. There were some bullish factors boosting the market, but that hardly seemed to matter. The market was up whether there was good news, bad news, or no news. The underlying bullish sentiment supported by perceived liquidity issues is driving the market.

The most noteworthy action occurred on Wednesday. The S&P was up a modest 2 points on Tuesday after a few more mergers were announced. Then on Wednesday, the S&P opened sharply lower after the Shanghai index had lost 6.5%. There were concerns about global implications of a potential bubble-burst in China.

Those concerns were quickly dismissed, however, as traders perhaps remembered that the February 27 meltdown in the stock market after a similar drop in the Shanghai market simply produced an excellent buying opportunity with no lasting negatives. By mid-day the S&P was up fractionally. The bad news proved no news at all.

Then at 2:00 that afternoon the minutes of the May 9 Fed policy committee meeting (FOMC) were released. There was nothing new or surprising. The minutes reflected exactly what was in the policy statement previously released - that the Fed's predominant concern remains inflation, that low levels of unemployment create inflation risks, and that the economy is expected to pick up over the rest of the year.

No news proved very good news. The S&P surged and closed the day up 12 points.

On Thursday the S&P was flat, holding its gains on a fairly quiet news day. Then on Friday, some legitimate good news arrived.

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator was up just 0.1% for April. That was below an expected 0.2% increase and brought the year-over-year gain down to 2.0%. That is at the top of the Fed's forecast range of 1.75% to 2.0% for 2007 for the first time since the Fed stopped raising rates. Also that day it was reported that May nonfarm payrolls were up a larger than expected 188,000.

The S&P 500 gained 6 points on Friday on the good inflation and economic news.

There were a few merger announcements this week of note. RBS upped its bid for ABM Amro, Archstone-Smith went private for $22 billion, CDW did likewise for $7.3 billion, Wachovia bought A.G. Edwards for $6.3 billion. Morgan Stanley bought an Australian real estate concern for $3.9 billion, and Ceridian went private for $5.3 billion. That was enough to keep investors optimistic that more deals are on the way.

The major economic reports were the PCE deflator and payroll data noted above. Other upbeat reports this week included an uptick in May consumer confidence and a May ISM manufacturing survey increase to 55.0 from 54.7 in April. On the negative side was a downward revision to first quarter real GDP growth to just a 0.6% annual rate. It was widely ignored, however, as old news.

The earnings calendar was light. Dell reported earnings above expectations but gave a mixed outlook and announced layoffs. The stock price jumped. Costco reported earnings in line with expectations while Sears disappointed.

Oil prices closed little changed for the week, holding near $65 a barrel. The 10-year note yield continued its trend higher and closed the week at 4.96%. A 5% yield is widely expected soon based on the belief that economic growth is strengthening.

The S&P set a record closing high this week. Momentum remains very strong across the board. Long-term optimism is driving the market. Bad news simply brings buying opportunities. Whether the fundamentals fully justify the bullish sentiment is questionable, but the tone this past week was clearly evident - every single day.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD
DJIA	13507.28	13668.11	160.83	1.2 %	9.7 %
Nasdaq	2557.19	2613.92	56.73	2.2 %	8.2 %
S&P 500	1515.73	1536.34	20.61	1.4 %	8.3 %
Russell 2000	829.93	853.41	23.48	2.8 %	8.3

Dow Jones Industrial Index

Intraday high 13,756.69
5 day interday high(resistance): 13,673
Missed by -84
0.619% :(

Intraday low 13,562.54
2nd intraday support: 13,548
Missed by -14
0.103% :(

Closed At 13,668.11
5 day interday high(resistance): 13,673
Missed by +5
0.037%

Direction for 010607: UP

NASDAQ Composite Index

Intraday high 2,626.40
2nd intraday resistance: 2,622
Missed by -4
0.152%

Intraday low 2,608.69
1st intraday support: 2,599 (5 day interday high(resistance): 2,608) but i cannot play cheat!
Missed by -9
0.345% :(

Closed At 2,613.92
5 day interday high(resistance): 2,608
Missed by -5
0.191%
zzzz

Direction for 010607: UP

S&P500 Index

Intraday high 1,540.56
5 day interday high(resistance): 1,536
Missed by -4
0.26%

Intraday low 1,530.62
1st intraday support: 1,529
Missed by -1
0.065% :)

Closed At 1,536.34
5 day interday high(resistance): 1,536
Missed by 0
0% *clap*

Direction for 010607: UP

Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 3 days)
DOW JONES : 0.185/3 = 0.0616% off (99.938%)
NASDAQ : 0.538/3 = 0.179% off (99.8200%) <---now I understand why the $VXN exists S&P 500 : 0.131/3 = 0.0437% off (99.9563%) Directional Correctness:
2/3 (66.67%)

_____________________________________________________________
Ok, other than the Nasdaq, I had a very good record of 99.9% closing price accuraccy for the indexes. The market direction was off and I learnt one good lesson - never only rely on technical analysis ONLY. Trading is all about information and how to make use of that information. Well, it was my first week so, long way to go!

BMC Friday 010607

(E-mini) Futures
S&P 500 (JUN) +1.00 NASDAQ 100 (JUN) +2.00 Dow ($5) (JUN) +12.00

Treasury Bonds
5 yr note 4.85 +0.03 10 yr note 4.89 +0.02 30 yr note 5.01 +0.01
Currencies
US vs Euro 1.3448 -0.03%
US vs Yen 0.0082 +0.04%

Commodities
Gold (CMX ) 666.70 +7.40
Light Crude (NYM ) 64.01 +0.52

Briefing.com

After-Hours Report

Dell Tops Forecasts

Last Update: 31-May-07 17:26 ET

Price level vs. 4 pm ET: The major averages finished mixed news as investors juggled more M&A news with mixed economic data and valuation concerns. The S&P 500 eked out just enough of a gain to close in record territory for a second straight session.

Seven out of ten economic sectors posted gains today.

A slightly upbeat tone also dictates the after hours session. Dell handily topping Wall Street expectations is contributing to the positive disposition. The S&P 500 futures, at 1534.00, are 1 point above fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1934.00, are 2 points above fair value.

Company	Stock Move	Reason for Move
Dell (DELL)	28.56 +1.64 (+6.13%)	Dell reported Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.34 per share $0.08 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.26. Revenues rose 2.7% year/year to $14.6 bln vs. the $13.93 bln consensus. Briefing.com Note: $0.34 EPS actual includes $0.02 in costs associated with ongoing investigation, so upside EPS surprise may be greater. Co comments on outlook, "DELL operating margins will be under pressure sequentially in Q2. In the second quarter, operating margins will be under pressure sequentially as the company enters the seasonally slower quarter with elevated operating expenses and additional costs related to the ongoing investigations. In addition, results for the year could be affected by additional transformational actions, changing competitive dynamics, a more aggressive pricing environment and higher component costs in the second half of the year."
Brocade (BRCD)	8.96 -0.23 (-2.51%)	Excluding non-recurring items, co reported Q2 (Apr) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.09. Revenues rose 54.0% year/year to $345.3 mln vs. the $345.4 mln consensus. "The fundamentals of our business remain strong and I am extremely pleased with our execution this quarter. We will continue to execute on our strategy of growth and diversification and we remain committed to delivering exceptional results."
J. Crew Group(JCG)	46.59 +1.72 (+3.83%)	Co reported Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.39 per share, $0.09 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 23.5% year/year to $297.3 mln vs. the $270.4 mln consensus. Co issues FY07 guidance, now sees full-year EPS of $1.37-1.41, versus previous forecasts of $1.27-1.31; sees Q2 EPS of $0.26-0.28 (consensus is $0.28).
Activision (ATVI)	19.50 -0.29 (-1.47%)	Excluding non-recurring items and option expense, co reported a Q4 (Mar) loss of $0.04 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.03). Revenues rose 66.1% year/year to $312.5 mln, well below the $213.2 mln consensus. Co issued EPS guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.05, which will include charges and may not be comparable to $0.07 consensus. Revenues are expected to be $425 mln (consensus $352.89 mln). For FY08, co sees EPS of $0.55, excluding option expense, which will include Q1 charges and may not be comparable to $0.56 consensus. Co raised its revenue guidance to $1.8 bln from $1.6 bln (consensus $1.71 bln).
Immucor (BLUD)	28.55 -3.03 (-9.59%)	Co issues fiscal 200 guidance, sees full-year EPS of $0.92-0.96 (consensus $1.03) on revenues of $249-$257 mln (consensus $259.98 mln). With respect to revenues, the co has extrapolated recent past results and assumed the co will generate additional revenues from the renewal of customer contracts at higher prices. The continuing sales of the Galileo instrument in North America and Europe, sales of the Galileo Echo which is expected to be launched in 1Q08 and the reagent growth associated with instrument placements.

With nothing of note on the earnings calendar tomorrow and the market's focus having shifted to "incoming" Fed data, Friday's tone will be predicated largely on the basis of what a plethora of key economic data will imply about the interest rate outlook. Heading the list will be the April Employment report given its influence on the market's outlook for the economy and Fed policy.

Personal Income and Spending, which also hits the wires at 8:30 ET, will be watched closely since inflation remains the Fed's predominant concern. Special emphasis will be placed on the core PCE deflator -- a favored inflation measure by Fed officials. The May ISM Index, Pending Home Sales for April and a revision to monthly sentiment compiled by the University of Michigan, all hitting the wires at 10:00 ET, will close out this week's busy economic calendar.

-- Brian Duhn, Briefing.com

_____________________________________________________________

Events for Friday, June 1:

• Earnings: Kirkland's (KIRK)
• Economic Data: May Employment Report, Personal Income and Spending, ISM Index, revision to Univ. of Michigan Sentiment, Pending Home Sales, Auto and Truck Sales
• Events: WY Analyst Meeting
• Conferences: Bank of America Healthcare Conference, Cowen and Company 35th Annual Technology Conference 2007 Focus on MidCap, Lehman Brothers Worldwide Wireless & Wireline Conference
• Fed Speakers: Fed's Krosner speaks on the U.S. economic outlook at the Institute of International Finance's 2007 Spring Membership Meeting

_____________________________________________________________

Technical Analysis
Throughout the past few days, the overall market sentiment was good, considering what the Fed has said about the economy. What I've done for the past few days was only looking at the technicals and guessing how the market will close. In actual fact, I didn't even looked at the news when I do this.

So what I'm going to do from now on, is to focus on technical analysis first, then go on to looking at the bigger picture: bonds, currencies, asian markets, news, events, even sectors. As of now, I still have a sucky job and I don't have the time to do all these. I will find some ways to make my life easier and do this thing faster. Maybe I will switch to wordpress or something.

Dow Jones Industrial Index 13,627.64 -5.44
A bastardized gravestone and spinning top doji signifies the same thing - end of a trend. Was it an uptrend or consolidation? I would say it's an uptrend. Since the Dow has broken one of the 161.8% XOP, it's kind of like continuing an uptrend after the week-long consolidation. Again, it is too soon to tell how to trend is going ot change and it requires confirmation. Could be an evening star, could be a bullish engulfing, I don't know...just wait and see.

1st intraday resistance: 13,638
2nd intraday resistance: 13,645
1st intraday support: 13,622
2nd intraday support: 13,548

5 day interday high(resistance): 13,673
5 day interday low(resistance): 13,424

Direction for 290507: DOWN

NASDAQ Composite Index 2,604.52 +11.93
A spinning top. Nasdaq is not currently on an uptrend. Looking at the fibonacci levels, I think that it will stay at the 100% level for some time before it can go up again. There is too much gain on Wednesday, profit-taking is a must!

1st intraday resistance: 2,607
2nd intraday resistance: 2,2622
1st intraday support: 2,599
2nd intraday support: 2,582

5 day interday high(resistance): 2,608
5 day interday low(resistance): 2,531

Direction for 290507: DOWN


S&P500 Index 1,530.62 +0.39
Another doji. This time, S&P is on a 6-week-long up trend(at least on this chart). Since it has already tested the 100% level(red) and found no strength and yesterday was a doji, it has a high possibility of going down.

1st intraday resistance: 1,532
2nd intraday resistance: 1,533
1st intraday support: 1,529
2nd intraday support: 1,527

5 day interday high(resistance): 1,536
5 day interday low(resistance): 1,505

Direction for 290507: Down

The Fear Gauges...
The $VIX...
Both has hit support levels, formed a doji after a huge tank, therefore it will go up, sending the volatility of all indexes up. We are going for a down day.

...& $VXN
With the non-farm payrolls and other inflation indicators coming up, we are in for a ride! Where it will end, according ot my technicals it should be a down day. Who knows? Technicals may be reliable, but the market is too dynamic for absolutes. In times like this, we need to look at the shorter-term to earn money. Meaning, WE WILL SCALP IN HELL TONIGHT!!!
Market Direction for 290507: DOWN

AMC 300507

Very quickly, coz I'm going to sleep.

DJIA 13,633.08 +111.74 NASDAQ 2,592.59 +20.53 S&P500 1,530.23 +12.12

Dow Jones Industrial Index
Closed at 13,633.08
5 day high: 13,625
Missed by -8
0.059%

Direction UP

NASDAQ Composite Index
Closed at 2,592.59
1st intraday resistance: 2,586
Missed by -6
0.23%

Direction UP

S&P500 Index
Closed at 1,530.23
1st intraday resistance: 1,529
Missed by -1
0.065%

Direction UP

Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 1 days)
DOW JONES : 0.148/2 = 0.074% off (99.926%)
NASDAQ : 0.347/2 = 0.174% off (99.8265%) <---shit...what's wrong with tech stocks?
S&P 500 : 0.131/2 = 0.0656% off (99.9345%)

Directional Correctness:
2/2 (100%)

310507

Haven't done market analysis because of stupid work.

Scalping on GS...
This is the first time I'm trading GS. Not bad, I was able to use the support and resistance to determine when to enter. as yesterday was a very bullish day; GS gapped up and never came down, today was a good day for consolidation.

I learnt quite alot of things today: it is very easy to use S&R to scalp on a consolidation day, as the stock would trade within a range predictably because it is moving sideways. I also notice what is meant by a money window. For a 15 minute scalp, I could identify 2 money windows before 2:30pm.

I've also made some stupid mistakes - because I'm using OX, i didn't realise the transaction fees until I checked my analysis. I wanted to sell along the uptrend, it ended up eating up my profits, thank you very much. OK, if I was using an IB account, I would have earned some money.

Finally, I realised that it was important to check the slippage of the option. That's it for today. Hope there's time for me to do some market analysis tomorrow. Fuck work. I'm going to trade full time!

BMO 300507

Index Futures at 7:06:13 AM ET
S&P 500 (JUN) -6.75 | NASDAQ 100 (JUN) -9.00 | Dow ($5) (JUN) -63.00

Currency
US vs Euro 1.3430 -0.12%
US vs Yen 0.0082 -0.03%
US vs GBP 1.98 -0.28%

Commodities
Gold (CMX ) 663.40 +2.00
Light Crude (NYM ) 63.15 -2.05

From Briefing.com:

Wednesday, May 30:

• Earnings: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Chico's FAS (CHS), Novell (NOVL), Payless Shoesource (PSS), TiVo (TIVO)
• Economic Data: FOMC Minutes
• Events: None
• Conferences: Bank of America Healthcare Conference, Cowen and Company 35th Annual Technology Conference 2007 Focus on Mid Cap, Deutsche Bank Securities Energy and Utilities Conference, Lehman Brothers Worldwide Wireless & Wireline Conference, Merill Lynch Small Cap Technology Healthcare Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Commentary
Tonight is the mother of all market movers: the FOMC minutes. Up or down, it depends. What I know is, the current interest rate is 5.25%, the Fed has made several statements which show that core inflation is under control (PCE at 2.1%) but not within the comfort level of 1.0-2.0%, the housing sector is slowing down but it's not the main concern of the Fed, what really decides a rate cut or hike now depends on the jobs market - which has data due out on Friday. I wouldn't dare to say anything but I'll just put down my 2 cents of candles.

Dow Jones Industrial Index 13,521.34 +14.06
The doji yesterday landed on a very nice support which was the resistance level of the year long uptrend. A doji has formed at the end of a 2-week consolidation. Technically, we will go up.

1st intraday resistance: 13,549
2nd intraday resistance: 13,580
1st intraday support: 13,489
2nd intraday support: 13,440

5 day interday high(resistance): 13,625
5 day interday low(resistance): 13,354

Direction for 290507: UP


NASDAQ Composite Index 2,572.06 +14.87
Combine yesterday's candle and the previous day's and you will get a bullish Harami at the end of a consolidation again!

1st intraday resistance: 2,579
2nd intraday resistance: 2,586
1st intraday support: 2,561
2nd intraday support: 2,551

5 day interday high(resistance): 2,601
5 day interday low(resistance): 2,520

Direction for 290507: UP




S&P500 Index 1,518.11 +2.38

Another Doji coming out. Combine candles and you will also get a Harami. It looks trapped in the uptrending support and 68.2% fibonacci retracement level. Tonight might be a volatile night but it will close narrowly.

1st intraday resistance: 1,522
2nd intraday resistance: 1,529
1st intraday support: 1,512
2nd intraday support: 1,507

5 day interday high(resistance): 1,533
5 day interday low(resistance): 1,500

Direction for 290507: Flat

The Fear Gauges...
The $VIX & $VXN

SAME~! Everything's like pointing the market up.


So there it is. We shall wait for 2pm before we know the direction...

AMC 290507

From Briefing.com:

DJIA 13,521.34 +14.06 NASDAQ 2,572.06 +14.87 S&P500 1,518.11 +2.38

Strong: residential REITs; diversified REITs; retail REITs; industrial REITs; office REITs; tires & rubber; specialty REITs; brewers; health care tech; diversified metals & mining
Weak: health care supplies; airlines; specialty stores; aluminum; refiners; oil & gas equipment; integrated oil; autos; building products; industrial gases

MOVING THE MARKET:

• M&A: RBS Group sweetens bud for ABN Amro to $95.5 bln; Archstone-Smith being bought for $22 bln (incl. debt); Alcan is reportedly drawing interest from Rio Tinto and Norsk-Hydro; Avaya and CDW rumored as takeover targets
• Oil prices fell 3.1% to $63.17/bbl as more refining capacity comes on line and strike ends in Nigeria
• Consumser confidence rebounded in May

• China triples stamp tax to 0.3% on securities trading to clamp down on overheated market

Commentary:
It was a choppy night; the Dow went up during the first half of the day, coming down at noon, then came back towards the end of the day with a 14.06 points increase. Tonight there might be a sell-off, as always before FOMC.

Dow Jones Industrial Index
Closed at 13,521.34
1st intraday resistance: 13,533.93
Missed by +12 :p
0.089%

Intraday high: 13,603.26
5 day interday high(resistance): 13,624.56
Missed by -21 :(
0.15%

Direction UP

NASDAQ Composite Index
Closed at 2,572.06
1st intraday resistance: 2,569
Missed by -3
0.117%

Intraday high: 2,576.36
2nd intraday resistance: 2,580
Missed by +4 :(
0.155%

Direction UP

S&P500 Index
Closed at 1,518.11
1st intraday resistance: 1,517
Missed by -1
0.066%

Intraday high: 1,521.80
2nd intraday resistance: 1,523
Missed by +2 :(
0.132%

Direction UP

It was a rough night, I lost alot of money on SHLD because I broke the rule that I always break: yesterday was not a day after consolidation. But I saw the gap up which did not close in 30 or 60 minutes, and therefore it was my excuse to get into the trade. However, poor readings of studies and wrong entries were my mistakes. I was looking for an intraday trade when the market suddenly turns down at noon. Damn.

Confidence level was also one of the most important reason why I hesitated. I didn't know the stock well and the studies don't always tell you a good story. Throughout the day, they were mixed, so was the market. It was a hell of a volatile night with the $TICK jumping up and down from 0 to 1300 at one point. Crap...it wasn't a day for intraday trades. I've learnt my lesson.

Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 1 days)
DOW JONES : 0.089/1 = 0.089% off (99.911%)
NASDAQ : 0.117/1 = 0.117% off (99.883%)
S&P 500 : 0.066/1 = 0.066% off (99.934%)

Directional Correctness:
1/1 (100%)

BMO 290507

From Briefing.com:

Tuesday, May 29:

• Earnings: HJ Heinz (HNZ), BMC Software (BMC), Borders Group (BGP)
• Economic Data: Consumer Confidence
• Events: None
• Conferences: Merill Lynch Small Cap Technology Healthcare Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

My weekly candles show that a) Dow is touching the 161.8% retracement level, b) Nasdaq is sitting on the fence with a rickshawman, c) S&P is on the 100% retracement level. Also, the 2 'investor's fear gauge' are having a bullish harami at the end of a consolidation. The day candles, however, tells a different story.

Dow Jones Industrial Index 13,507.28 +66.18


















Now we can see that the daily candles are sitting on the 61.8% retracement level. Is it ready to go up? I think it's too early to tell now(at 12:02am ET) because there will be 2 datas coming out. The overall direction should be up: I'm not 100% sure it will go up, but I'm 70% sure it will not go down more than the 13,450 level.

1st intraday resistance: 13,533.93
2nd intraday resistance: 13,585.49
1st intraday support: 13,483.12
2nd intraday support: 13,450.98

5 day interday high(resistance): 13,624.56
5 day interday low(resistance): 13,425.43

Direction for 290507: UP

NASDAQ Composite Index 2,557.19 +19.27


















The Nasdaq is somehow more consistent within the week and day candles - both are sitting on a support level and consolidating. I think it will go up.

In addition, the VXN....
...is showing a bearish Harami at the end of a consolidation. This means the Nasdaq has a very high chance of rallying.














1st intraday resistance: 2,569
2nd intraday resistance: 2,580
1st intraday support: 2,557
2nd intraday support: 2,550

5 day interday high(resistance): 2,601
5 day interday low(resistance): 2,531

Direction for 290507: UP

S&P500 Index 1,515.73 +8.22


















Sitting in between 2 retracement levels is a sign of consolidation. As S&P is a widely diversified index, I guess it is really going for a short-term consolidation before tomorrow's FOMC minutes and friday's action-packed data announcements. However, bearing in mind there's not much market-moving news today, the S&P will definitely take some modest gains.

1st intraday resistance: 1,517
2nd intraday resistance: 1,523
1st intraday support: 1,512
2nd intraday support: 1,507

5 day interday high(resistance): 1,532
5 day interday low(resistance): 1,505

Direction for 290507: UP

CBOE Volatility Index 13.34
Another bearish Harami at the end of a consolidation. The market is going to be less volatile today. Less volatility = bullish market!














Conclusion
Today is a relatively quiet day with not much economic data ahead. Today there will definitely be some gains before we tank tomorrow before the FOMC minutes. Modest upside only.

Direction for 290507: UP