Thursday, May 31, 2007

BMC Friday 010607

(E-mini) Futures
S&P 500 (JUN) +1.00 NASDAQ 100 (JUN) +2.00 Dow ($5) (JUN) +12.00

Treasury Bonds
5 yr note 4.85 +0.03 10 yr note 4.89 +0.02 30 yr note 5.01 +0.01
Currencies
US vs Euro 1.3448 -0.03%
US vs Yen 0.0082 +0.04%

Commodities
Gold (CMX ) 666.70 +7.40
Light Crude (NYM ) 64.01 +0.52

Briefing.com
After-Hours Report

Dell Tops Forecasts

Last Update: 31-May-07 17:26 ET

Price level vs. 4 pm ET: The major averages finished mixed news as investors juggled more M&A news with mixed economic data and valuation concerns. The S&P 500 eked out just enough of a gain to close in record territory for a second straight session.

Seven out of ten economic sectors posted gains today.

A slightly upbeat tone also dictates the after hours session. Dell handily topping Wall Street expectations is contributing to the positive disposition. The S&P 500 futures, at 1534.00, are 1 point above fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1934.00, are 2 points above fair value.

Company Stock Move Reason for Move
Dell (DELL) 28.56
+1.64
(+6.13%)
Dell reported Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.34 per share $0.08 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.26. Revenues rose 2.7% year/year to $14.6 bln vs. the $13.93 bln consensus. Briefing.com Note: $0.34 EPS actual includes $0.02 in costs associated with ongoing investigation, so upside EPS surprise may be greater. Co comments on outlook, "DELL operating margins will be under pressure sequentially in Q2. In the second quarter, operating margins will be under pressure sequentially as the company enters the seasonally slower quarter with elevated operating expenses and additional costs related to the ongoing investigations. In addition, results for the year could be affected by additional transformational actions, changing competitive dynamics, a more aggressive pricing environment and higher component costs in the second half of the year."

Brocade (BRCD) 8.96
-0.23
(-2.51%)
Excluding non-recurring items, co reported Q2 (Apr) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.09. Revenues rose 54.0% year/year to $345.3 mln vs. the $345.4 mln consensus. "The fundamentals of our business remain strong and I am extremely pleased with our execution this quarter. We will continue to execute on our strategy of growth and diversification and we remain committed to delivering exceptional results."

J. Crew Group(JCG) 46.59
+1.72
(+3.83%)
Co reported Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.39 per share, $0.09 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 23.5% year/year to $297.3 mln vs. the $270.4 mln consensus. Co issues FY07 guidance, now sees full-year EPS of $1.37-1.41, versus previous forecasts of $1.27-1.31; sees Q2 EPS of $0.26-0.28 (consensus is $0.28).

Activision (ATVI) 19.50
-0.29
(-1.47%)
Excluding non-recurring items and option expense, co reported a Q4 (Mar) loss of $0.04 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.03). Revenues rose 66.1% year/year to $312.5 mln, well below the $213.2 mln consensus. Co issued EPS guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.05, which will include charges and may not be comparable to $0.07 consensus. Revenues are expected to be $425 mln (consensus $352.89 mln). For FY08, co sees EPS of $0.55, excluding option expense, which will include Q1 charges and may not be comparable to $0.56 consensus. Co raised its revenue guidance to $1.8 bln from $1.6 bln (consensus $1.71 bln).

Immucor (BLUD) 28.55
-3.03
(-9.59%)
Co issues fiscal 200 guidance, sees full-year EPS of $0.92-0.96 (consensus $1.03) on revenues of $249-$257 mln (consensus $259.98 mln). With respect to revenues, the co has extrapolated recent past results and assumed the co will generate additional revenues from the renewal of customer contracts at higher prices. The continuing sales of the Galileo instrument in North America and Europe, sales of the Galileo Echo which is expected to be launched in 1Q08 and the reagent growth associated with instrument placements.

With nothing of note on the earnings calendar tomorrow and the market's focus having shifted to "incoming" Fed data, Friday's tone will be predicated largely on the basis of what a plethora of key economic data will imply about the interest rate outlook. Heading the list will be the April Employment report given its influence on the market's outlook for the economy and Fed policy.

Personal Income and Spending, which also hits the wires at 8:30 ET, will be watched closely since inflation remains the Fed's predominant concern. Special emphasis will be placed on the core PCE deflator -- a favored inflation measure by Fed officials. The May ISM Index, Pending Home Sales for April and a revision to monthly sentiment compiled by the University of Michigan, all hitting the wires at 10:00 ET, will close out this week's busy economic calendar.

-- Brian Duhn, Briefing.com

_____________________________________________________________

Events for Friday, June 1:

  • Earnings: Kirkland's (KIRK)
  • Economic Data: May Employment Report, Personal Income and Spending, ISM Index, revision to Univ. of Michigan Sentiment, Pending Home Sales, Auto and Truck Sales
  • Events: WY Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: Bank of America Healthcare Conference, Cowen and Company 35th Annual Technology Conference 2007 Focus on MidCap, Lehman Brothers Worldwide Wireless & Wireline Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Fed's Krosner speaks on the U.S. economic outlook at the Institute of International Finance's 2007 Spring Membership Meeting
_____________________________________________________________

Technical Analysis
Throughout the past few days, the overall market sentiment was good, considering what the Fed has said about the economy. What I've done for the past few days was only looking at the technicals and guessing how the market will close. In actual fact, I didn't even looked at the news when I do this.

So what I'm going to do from now on, is to focus on technical analysis first, then go on to looking at the bigger picture: bonds, currencies, asian markets, news, events, even sectors. As of now, I still have a sucky job and I don't have the time to do all these. I will find some ways to make my life easier and do this thing faster. Maybe I will switch to wordpress or something.

Dow Jones Industrial Index 13,627.64 -5.44
A bastardized gravestone and spinning top doji signifies the same thing - end of a trend. Was it an uptrend or consolidation? I would say it's an uptrend. Since the Dow has broken one of the 161.8% XOP, it's kind of like continuing an uptrend after the week-long consolidation. Again, it is too soon to tell how to trend is going ot change and it requires confirmation. Could be an evening star, could be a bullish engulfing, I don't know...just wait and see.

1st intraday resistance: 13,638
2nd intraday resistance: 13,645
1st intraday support: 13,622
2nd intraday support: 13,548

5 day interday high(resistance): 13,673
5 day interday low(resistance): 13,424

Direction for 290507: DOWN

NASDAQ Composite Index 2,604.52 +11.93
A spinning top. Nasdaq is not currently on an uptrend. Looking at the fibonacci levels, I think that it will stay at the 100% level for some time before it can go up again. There is too much gain on Wednesday, profit-taking is a must!

1st intraday resistance: 2,607
2nd intraday resistance: 2,2622
1st intraday support: 2,599
2nd intraday support: 2,582

5 day interday high(resistance): 2,608
5 day interday low(resistance): 2,531

Direction for 290507: DOWN


S&P500 Index 1,530.62 +0.39
Another doji. This time, S&P is on a 6-week-long up trend(at least on this chart). Since it has already tested the 100% level(red) and found no strength and yesterday was a doji, it has a high possibility of going down.

1st intraday resistance: 1,532
2nd intraday resistance: 1,533
1st intraday support: 1,529
2nd intraday support: 1,527

5 day interday high(resistance): 1,536
5 day interday low(resistance): 1,505


Direction for 290507: Down

The Fear Gauges...
The $VIX...
Both has hit support levels, formed a doji after a huge tank, therefore it will go up, sending the volatility of all indexes up. We are going for a down day.

...& $VXN
With the non-farm payrolls and other inflation indicators coming up, we are in for a ride! Where it will end, according ot my technicals it should be a down day. Who knows? Technicals may be reliable, but the market is too dynamic for absolutes. In times like this, we need to look at the shorter-term to earn money. Meaning, WE WILL SCALP IN HELL TONIGHT!!!
Market Direction for 290507: DOWN


AMC 300507

Very quickly, coz I'm going to sleep.

DJIA
13,633.08
+111.74 NASDAQ 2,592.59 +20.53 S&P500 1,530.23 +12.12

Dow Jones Industrial Index
Closed at 13,
633.08
5 day high: 13,625
Missed by -8
0.059%


Direction UP

NASDAQ Composite Index
Closed at 2,592.59
1st intraday resistance: 2,586
Missed by -6
0.23%


Direction UP

S&P500 Index
Closed at 1,530.23
1st intraday resistance: 1,529
Missed by -1
0.065%


Direction UP

Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 1 days)
DOW JONES : 0.148/2 = 0.074% off (99.926%)
NASDAQ : 0.347/2 = 0.174% off (99.8265%) <---shit...what's wrong with tech stocks?
S&P 500 : 0.131/2 = 0.0656% off (99.9345%)

Directional Correctness:
2/2 (100%)

310507

Haven't done market analysis because of stupid work.

Scalping on GS...
This is the first time I'm trading GS. Not bad, I was able to use the support and resistance to determine when to enter. as yesterday was a very bullish day; GS gapped up and never came down, today was a good day for consolidation.

I learnt quite alot of things today: it is very easy to use S&R to scalp on a consolidation day, as the stock would trade within a range predictably because it is moving sideways. I also notice what is meant by a money window. For a 15 minute scalp, I could identify 2 money windows before 2:30pm.

I've also made some stupid mistakes - because I'm using OX, i didn't realise the transaction fees until I checked my analysis. I wanted to sell along the uptrend, it ended up eating up my profits, thank you very much. OK, if I was using an IB account, I would have earned some money.

Finally, I realised that it was important to check the slippage of the option. That's it for today. Hope there's time for me to do some market analysis tomorrow. Fuck work. I'm going to trade full time!

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

BMO 300507

Index Futures at 7:06:13 AM ET
S&P 500 (JUN) -6.75 | NASDAQ 100 (JUN) -9.00 | Dow ($5) (JUN) -63.00

Currency
US vs Euro 1.3430 -0.12%
US vs Yen 0.0082 -0.03%
US vs GBP 1.98 -0.28%

Commodities
Gold (CMX ) 663.40 +2.00
Light Crude (NYM ) 63.15 -2.05

From Briefing.com:

Wednesday, May 30:

  • Earnings: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Chico's FAS (CHS), Novell (NOVL), Payless Shoesource (PSS), TiVo (TIVO)
  • Economic Data: FOMC Minutes
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Bank of America Healthcare Conference, Cowen and Company 35th Annual Technology Conference 2007 Focus on Mid Cap, Deutsche Bank Securities Energy and Utilities Conference, Lehman Brothers Worldwide Wireless & Wireline Conference, Merill Lynch Small Cap Technology Healthcare Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None

Commentary
Tonight is the mother of all market movers: the FOMC minutes. Up or down, it depends. What I know is, the current interest rate is 5.25%, the Fed has made several statements which show that core inflation is under control (PCE at 2.1%) but not within the comfort level of 1.0-2.0%, the housing sector is slowing down but it's not the main concern of the Fed, what really decides a rate cut or hike now depends on the jobs market - which has data due out on Friday. I wouldn't dare to say anything but I'll just put down my 2 cents of candles.

Dow Jones Industrial Index 13,521.34 +14.06
The doji yesterday landed on a very nice support which was the resistance level of the year long uptrend. A doji has formed at the end of a 2-week consolidation. Technically, we will go up.

1st intraday resistance: 13,549
2nd intraday resistance: 13,580
1st intraday support: 13,489
2nd intraday support: 13,440

5 day interday high(resistance): 13,625
5 day interday low(resistance): 13,354

Direction for 290507: UP


NASDAQ Composite Index 2,572.06 +14.87
Combine yesterday's candle and the previous day's and you will get a bullish Harami at the end of a consolidation again!

1st intraday resistance: 2,579
2nd intraday resistance: 2,586
1st intraday support: 2,561
2nd intraday support: 2,551

5 day interday high(resistance): 2,601
5 day interday low(resistance): 2,520

Direction for 290507: UP




S&P500 Index 1,518.11 +2.38

Another Doji coming out. Combine candles and you will also get a Harami. It looks trapped in the uptrending support and 68.2% fibonacci retracement level. Tonight might be a volatile night but it will close narrowly.

1st intraday resistance: 1,522
2nd intraday resistance: 1,529
1st intraday support: 1,512
2nd intraday support: 1,507

5 day interday high(resistance): 1,533
5 day interday low(resistance): 1,500


Direction for 290507: Flat

The Fear Gauges...
The $VIX & $VXN
SAME~! Everything's like pointing the market up.


So there it is. We shall wait for 2pm before we know the direction...


Tuesday, May 29, 2007

AMC 290507

From Briefing.com:

DJIA 13,521.34 +14.06 NASDAQ 2,572.06 +14.87 S&P500 1,518.11 +2.38

Strong: residential REITs; diversified REITs; retail REITs; industrial REITs; office REITs; tires & rubber; specialty REITs; brewers; health care tech; diversified metals & mining
Weak:
health care supplies; airlines; specialty stores; aluminum; refiners; oil & gas equipment; integrated oil; autos; building products; industrial gases

MOVING THE MARKET:
  • M&A: RBS Group sweetens bud for ABN Amro to $95.5 bln; Archstone-Smith being bought for $22 bln (incl. debt); Alcan is reportedly drawing interest from Rio Tinto and Norsk-Hydro; Avaya and CDW rumored as takeover targets
  • Oil prices fell 3.1% to $63.17/bbl as more refining capacity comes on line and strike ends in Nigeria
  • Consumser confidence rebounded in May
  • China triples stamp tax to 0.3% on securities trading to clamp down on overheated market
Commentary:
It was a choppy night; the Dow went up during the first half of the day, coming down at noon, then came back towards the end of the day with a 14.06 points increase. Tonight there might be a sell-off, as always before FOMC.

Dow Jones Industrial Index
Closed at 13,521.34
1st intraday resistance: 13,533.93
Missed by +12 :p
0.089%

Intraday high:
13,603.26
5 day interday high(resistance): 13,624.56
Missed by -21 :(
0.15%

Direction UP

NASDAQ Composite Index
Closed at 2,572.06
1st intraday resistance: 2,569
Missed by -3
0.117%

Intraday high:
2,576.36
2nd intraday resistance: 2,580
Missed by +4 :(
0.155%

Direction UP

S&P500 Index
Closed at 1,518.11
1st intraday resistance: 1,517
Missed by -1
0.066%

Intraday high:
1,521.80
2nd intraday resistance: 1,523
Missed by +2 :(
0.132%

Direction UP

It was a rough night, I lost alot of money on SHLD because I broke the rule that I always break: yesterday was not a day after consolidation. But I saw the gap up which did not close in 30 or 60 minutes, and therefore it was my excuse to get into the trade. However, poor readings of studies and wrong entries were my mistakes. I was looking for an intraday trade when the market suddenly turns down at noon. Damn.

Confidence level was also one of the most important reason why I hesitated. I didn't know the stock well and the studies don't always tell you a good story. Throughout the day, they were mixed, so was the market. It was a hell of a volatile night with the $TICK jumping up and down from 0 to 1300 at one point. Crap...it wasn't a day for intraday trades. I've learnt my lesson.

Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 1 days)
DOW JONES : 0.089/1 = 0.089% off (99.911%)
NASDAQ : 0.117/1 = 0.117% off (99.883%)
S&P 500 : 0.066/1 = 0.066% off (99.934%)

Directional Correctness:
1/1 (100%)



Monday, May 28, 2007

BMO 290507

From Briefing.com:


Tuesday, May 29:

  • Earnings: HJ Heinz (HNZ), BMC Software (BMC), Borders Group (BGP)
  • Economic Data: Consumer Confidence
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Merill Lynch Small Cap Technology Healthcare Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None


My weekly candles show that a) Dow is touching the 161.8% retracement level, b) Nasdaq is sitting on the fence with a rickshawman, c) S&P is on the 100% retracement level. Also, the 2 'investor's fear gauge' are having a bullish harami at the end of a consolidation. The day candles, however, tells a different story.

Dow Jones Industrial Index 13,507.28 +66.18


















Now we can see that the daily candles are sitting on the 61.8% retracement level. Is it ready to go up? I think it's too early to tell now(at 12:02am ET) because there will be 2 datas coming out. The overall direction should be up: I'm not 100% sure it will go up, but I'm 70% sure it will not go down more than the 13,450 level.

1st intraday resistance: 13,533.93
2nd intraday resistance: 13,585.49
1st intraday support: 13,483.12
2nd intraday support: 13,450.98

5 day interday high(resistance): 13,624.56
5 day interday low(resistance): 13,425.43

Direction for 290507: UP

NASDAQ Composite Index 2,557.19 +19.27


















The Nasdaq is somehow more consistent within the week and day candles - both are sitting on a support level and consolidating. I think it will go up.

In addition, the VXN....
...is showing a bearish Harami at the end of a consolidation. This means the Nasdaq has a very high chance of rallying.














1st intraday resistance: 2,569
2nd intraday resistance: 2,580
1st intraday support: 2,557
2nd intraday support: 2,550

5 day interday high(resistance): 2,601
5 day interday low(resistance): 2,531

Direction for 290507: UP

S&P500 Index 1,515.73 +8.22


















Sitting in between 2 retracement levels is a sign of consolidation. As S&P is a widely diversified index, I guess it is really going for a short-term consolidation before tomorrow's FOMC minutes and friday's action-packed data announcements. However, bearing in mind there's not much market-moving news today, the S&P will definitely take some modest gains.

1st intraday resistance: 1,517
2nd intraday resistance: 1,523
1st intraday support: 1,512
2nd intraday support: 1,507

5 day interday high(resistance): 1,532
5 day interday low(resistance): 1,505

Direction for 290507: UP

CBOE Volatility Index 13.34
Another bearish Harami at the end of a consolidation. The market is going to be less volatile today. Less volatility = bullish market!














Conclusion
Today is a relatively quiet day with not much economic data ahead. Today there will definitely be some gains before we tank tomorrow before the FOMC minutes. Modest upside only.

Direction for 290507: UP

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Week Direction For 290507 to 010607

This is my first post on this blog. I guess there won't be anyone reading so I just anyhow lah.

First of all, the events and the news.

MONDAY 5/28: none
TUESDAY 5/29: 0745 retail chain index, 1000 consumer confidence
WEDNESDAY 5/30: 1030 energy dept oil stocks, 1400 FOMC minutes
THURSDAY 5/31: 0830 jobless claims, GDP, 945 Chicago PMI, 1000 construction spending, help wanted index, 1630 Money supply(M2)
FRIDAY 6/01: 0830 Non-Farm payrolls, jobless rates, hourly earnings, average work week, 1000 personal income, consumer spending, ISM index, consumer sentiment

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,507.28 -49.25


















Reached the short term XOP and a spinning top doji is formed. Just nice that the last week candle was the eighth on the uptrend. The std6 studies are not showing any divergence on the MACD, volumes and stochastics. RSI remains on the upper 70 point mark. The worst thing that could happen is the index will go sideways. That is, if none of the economic data screws up, which is very unlikely.

Direction for week 5/28 - 6/01: UP

NASDAQ Composite Index 2,557.19 -3.74


















NASDAQ has also been hovering around the resistance level of its 5-week-consolidation period. It looks like it really wants to break out. A tall rickshaw man has formed, with the upper shadow reaching the support lines of a 10 week uptrend. Looks like the tech bears and bulls had a strong fight and the bears couldn't bring the index down to the support levels. Any slight, good, news would send the index back to an uptrend.


Direction for week 5/28 - 6/01: UP

S&P 500 Index 1515.73 -7.02


















Last week was the eighth candle in the uptrend. Now S&P is in a very strong support area with 2 lines of support: the 100% fibonacci retracement level and the uptrending support that was formed in January to February before the 27th came and screw it all up. With a very diversified portfolio of 500 stocks from all sectors, the only thing that could bring it down is the FOMC minutes on wednesday. Anyway, worst thing that could happen is it would go sideways.

Direction for week 5/28 - 6/01: UP

CBOE Volatility Index 13.34


















The VIX has been consolidating since the spike on 27th February. Now we are looking at a rickshawman at the end of a consolidation - a sign of a break out. Up or down? Again it depends on the Fed and economic data ahead. On the studies, the 50-day-moving average has crossed under the 10 and 20 day moving average. It looks like it's going to turn volatile again.


CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index 17.07


















NASDAQ's volatility is also going through a consolidation, but at the level of it's previous uptrending months in January and February. A big bullish spinning top could mean that it's going to break up the resistance level at 18 points or maybe it might just test the level once again. Volatility will sure go up bearing the events ahead.

With both volatility indexes going up, it looks like a flat-to-the-upside-week ahead for the major indices. There will be a big fight between the bears and the bulls this coming week. Who shall prevail? Of course the biggest deciding factor would be the FOMC and economic data. Bearing these in mind, I wouldn't enter any trades this week until I see a rally on Friday after the data.

Direction for week 5/28 - 6/01: FLAT

This is the place where I hone my trading skills

Where else better to start by analyzing the market?